What $10 Billion in Commercial Real Estate Deals Reveals About Today’s Market

Commercial real estate has entered a new phase.

After years of rapid appreciation, low interest rates, and aggressive value-add strategies, investors are being forced to rethink how they evaluate opportunities.

On this episode of the Major League Real Estate Podcast, Mark Sinnett—Head of Capital Markets for Quebec at Avison Young—shares lessons from more than 800 transactions totaling over $10 billion in commercial real estate.

His perspective offers a rare look into how institutional investors think about acquisitions, market cycles, and long-term value creation.

Retail Is Making a Surprising Comeback

For years, retail was viewed as the asset class most threatened by e-commerce.

Today, that’s changing.

Many weaker retailers have disappeared, stronger brands have successfully integrated online and physical stores, and very little new retail has been built over the past decade.

At the same time, population growth has continued increasing demand for neighborhood shopping centers and service-based retail.

Mark believes these supply-demand dynamics have created attractive opportunities for investors looking beyond the headlines.

Office May Be Closer to Recovery Than Most Think

Office has been one of commercial real estate’s most challenged sectors since 2020.

However, Mark sees signs that conditions are beginning to improve.

Many companies that downsized during the pandemic are now searching for additional space as employees return to the office. Meanwhile, new office construction remains limited, reducing future supply.

While financing is still cautious, investors willing to buy quality office assets below pre-2020 valuations may eventually benefit from improving fundamentals.

The Best Investors Always Plan Their Exit First

One of Mark’s strongest pieces of advice has nothing to do with underwriting.

Before buying any property, investors should identify multiple exit strategies.

Markets change.

Interest rates move.

Financing conditions tighten.

Political decisions affect zoning and regulations.

Having only one business plan increases risk dramatically.

Instead, investors should ask:

• Could this property be refinanced?
• Could it be sold to another investor?
• Could its use be repositioned?
• Are there multiple ways to create value?

Flexibility often becomes the difference between surviving a market cycle and getting stuck.

Schedule a discovery call today.